THE MOST CURRENT STUDIES AND COUNTRY REPORTS
It is a solemn fact that in order to understand the current situation of any commercial real estate market around the globe, including Turkey, analysis of the current impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the main dynamics of the industry is required.
Probably almost everyone in Europe would like to see a return to normality, to where we have achieved herd immunity, infection numbers are controlled, and coronavirus-related restrictions are lifted. Whenever we reach that normality, it will still be a new kind of normal. The coronavirus pandemic will permanently change the way we work, live, and consume – and retailers will also have to find their way in the new world after the acute shock of 2020 and 2021.
Global Retail Attractiveness Index remains weak in Europe. Poland, Germany and Ireland are new top trio in index. UK the only market to see an increase.
As if retailers in German city centers have not had enough to contend with in recent years–primarily driven by growing competition from online retailers–now they are also confronted with even bigger economic problems due to the Corona pandemic and the associated restrictions and closures. A continuous analysis of visitor development by GfK shows what has actually happened since the start of the pandemic, who the losers and even bigger losers of the pandemic are, and what the future holds.
A new report from Union Investment and JLL highlights the growing grocery real estate market, with the share of European grocery real estate investment, as a proportion of total retail real estate investment, reaching 22% in 2020, up from 6% in 2016.
Multi recently published its Pan European Customer Monitor + Covid-19 Survey. For Head of Research Mariam Hussain, the most positively surprising result was that 70% of visitors surveyed indicated that shopping centers are valuable places to spend time in and will continue to be especially once the pandemic is over.
According to Coniq’s paper, geo-loyalty, the integration of proximity marketing, and customer loyalty programs are the future for retail destinations because they effectively engage consumers in-store AND online.
Retail parks have been the best performing and most resilient retail format in Belgium prior to and throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, resulting in a slight compression in yields by 25bps since the beginning of the year according to new research by CBRE commissioned by Mitiska REIM.
The first Europe-wide lockdown in spring 2020 sent retail markets from Scandinavia to the Iberian peninsula into an unprecedented state of collective shock. This was reflected in the European retail industry barometer, the Global Retail Attractiveness Index (GRAI), which plummeted to a historic low of 89 points in the second quarter.
Multi is pleased to share the results of the Pan European Customer Monitor + Covid-19 Survey, which analyses responses from 33,000 shopping centre visitors from across 11 countries and 50 retail locations that were assessed in November 2020.
A recent report by JLL focuses on Poland’s retail market. Although e-commerce is due to the Covie-19-crisis now much developing in the country, traditional retailing is still the first choice for most consumers.
In Poland, 2020, a turbulent year, has brought about many changes in the retail market. The unexpected occurrence of the pandemic has complicated the situation for both contractors and tenants. However, Covid-19 has not so much initiated new trends as it has dynamized the existing ones. It is not only about the growing importance of the omnichannel approach, especially with regard to e-commerce; the increasing share of retail parks and convenience centers in retail sales also ranks as one of the key trends. As research has shown, smaller-scale commercial formats have been most successful in dealing with the challenges brought about by the pandemic.
Retail parks and hybrids have weathered the storm of the crisis relatively well due to their high proportion of local supply. Nevertheless, in the vortex of the coronavirus crisis, the issue of sustainability seems to have fallen by the wayside in many cases. That picture, however, is deceptive. The necessary (re)alignment of retail parks and other agglomerated retail real estate properties makes it necessary for ESG criteria (environment, social, governance) to be taken into account. The following “Top 5 Lessons Learned” were taken from a recent publication on retail parks in Germany*.
“Covid-19 is the biggest challenge of our time and it affects the retail sector as well as the retail real estate market. With the study Footfall Anchors Post Corona–5 Propositions for the New Future of Retail, we discuss the current situation for retailers, investors, project developers, and municipalities on a broad scale. In collaboration with renowned experts we discuss the new future of retail, the real estate industry, and subsegments of the retail real estate sector. The result is a comprehensive documentation of the status quo regarding the situation of retail asset class.” - Angelus Bernreuther, Head of Investor Relationship Management at Kaufland Germany.
Modern retail stock in Romania will exceed the 4 million sq m threshold by the end of the year. Several openings were postponed due to Covid-19.
Almost 90,000 sq m of new retail space was delivered to Polish market in the second quarter of 2020. Footfall amounted to approximately 80% of last year’s due to the pandemic.
Malls in Switzerland are currently losing 39 million Swiss francs in revenue per day.
The corona virus pandemic and the related measures represent an entirely new and unexpected situation for the entire real estate market, with a global scope and a major local impact on everyone. According to Cushman & Wakefield Czech Republic, retail is one of the most affected sectors, yet it should also play a pivotal role in re-starting the economy.
Standort + Markt recently published a first estimate regarding the anticipated daily loss of revenue of shopping places in Austria due to the corona shutdown. Its results provide solid guidelines for the European retail real estate market in general.
It almost reminds one of the 1993 film “Groundhog Day”. The only difference is that Dr. Will, together with his management consultancy Ecostra, has only employed the recurring, annual use of mathematical calculations since 2011, with the purpose of creating a body of evidence, based on statistical methods, that would allow for a ranking of the best shopping centers in Germany to be drawn up.