By Tanya Hahn, RegioData Research
The European shopping center landscape is undergoing a structural shift that is more nuanced than often assumed, according to our insights. While the narrative of disruption is widespread, our data indicates that actual transformation is progressing more gradually.
Our analysis is based on RegioData Research’s comprehensive Shopping Center Collection, covering more than 10,000 shopping centers across Europe, including shopping malls, retail parks, factory outlet centers and large-scale retail formats. This extensive dataset provides a robust foundation for understanding long-term market developments and structural trends.
Shopping centers still play a significant role in European retail, accounting for approximately 28% of total retail turnover. However, this figure varies substantially across regions. It is exceeding 50% in Northern Europe, while dropping to around 8% in Southern markets such as Greece. From our perspective, this highlights that shopping centers are not a uniform success model, but strongly dependent on regional market structures and purchasing power.
End of Large-Scale Expansion
At the same time, our data clearly indicates that the era of large-scale expansion has come to an end. New development activity has declined significantly, with two major turning points shaping this trend: the global financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Since 2022, almost no new shopping mall retail space has been created in Europe, and future projects are increasingly uncertain.
Particularly striking in our data is the situation of large-scale developments. Around 1.5 million sqm of mega-mall projects are currently on hold, and many of these projects are unlikely to be realized in their original form.
In contrast, retail parks have emerged as the most stable and dynamic format. Over the past decade, development has remained relatively steady, with a clear geographical shift since 2021 towards Central and South-Eastern Europe. Typical new retail parks are smaller and highly functional, often ranging between 7,000 and 10,000 sqm GLA, and are driven by discount-oriented tenant mixes and convenience-focused concepts.
Gradual Change in Existing Centers
Our data also reveals a broader structural change within existing shopping centers. Vacancy rates have increased from around 5.1% in 2019 to approximately 7.5% today, while tenant mixes are evolving.
Discount retailers are expanding rapidly, filling space previously occupied by traditional retail. At the same time, non-retail uses such as gastronomy, services and healthcare are gradually increasing, although the overall transformation remains moderate.
Another key takeaway from our analysis is that the industry’s response to changing consumer behavior has been relatively slow. Despite significant shifts driven by e-commerce, price sensitivity and changing consumer values, many shopping centers are adapting cautiously, focusing more on incrementala optimization than on fundamental repositioning.
Structural Recalibration Rather Than Decline
Overall, based on our data, the European shopping center landscape is not in decline, but in a phase of structural recalibration.
Growth is no longer driven by expansion, but by adaptation, efficiency and location quality. Future success will depend on the ability to respond to changing demand patterns and to leverage data-driven insights for more precise decision-making.
About the Author
Tanya Hahn (born 1992, Vienna) is Marketing and Communications Manager at RegioData Research. She studied Media Production at FH bfi Vienna and holds a Magister degree in Journalism and Communication Studies. Most recently, she presented on European shopping center market developments at the 28th Retail Symposium by RegioPlan.
RegioData Research GmbH is an independent market research company with offices in Vienna and Munich. For more than 20 years, it has analyzed European consumer and real estate markets. The company supports retail, manufacturing and real estate businesses across Europe in expansion, marketing and controlling, offering services such as industry analyses, geomarketing and location data, as well as frequency data and software tools for evaluation.
