by Will Odwarka, CEO Heartatwork
Europe’s coffee industry is debating taste while the business model quietly shifts. Starbucks is searching for its soul across a footprint the size of a utility network. Costa remains hard to define despite its scale. Artisan operators promise consumers will finally learn to appreciate nuance.
They won’t. Not at 8:13am.
From theatre to throughput
Coffee is becoming a feature, not a category. And for developers and landlords, that changes the leasing logic.
The brands quietly outperforming are food-forward: Ole & Steen, Gail’s, PAUL, Panera-style hybrids. They monetize breakfast, lunch, afternoon snack, and take-home even delivery in some areas. Coffee is the permission slip. Food drives the ticket. Food drives frequency. Food stabilizes turnover.
Greggs, UK is the uncomfortable proof. No origin stories, no theatre — just speed, value and daily habit. In commuter-driven environments, frequency beats finesse, and Pret is the poorer for it.
Matcha is the new margin wave: photogenic, wellness-coded, premium priced. Consumers rarely understand quality differences — but they understand lifestyle signals. At the premium end, % Arabica shows how architecture can elevate a destination asset in Milan or Barcelona. But aesthetic concepts are highly location sensitive. Design alone does not guarantee repeat demand.
At the other extreme, app-driven chains like Luckin or Cotti operate as beverage distribution systems: small footprint, aggressive pricing, promotion-led traffic. Attractive for leasing. Risky if demand is subsidy-driven rather than habit-driven.
The economics of habit
Across Europe, performance varies by city type:
- Prime CBDs (London, Paris, Amsterdam): food-led hybrids outperform beverage-only concepts by owning multiple dayparts.
- Tourist and flagship malls: premium design brands can enhance positioning—but only in the right ecosystem.
- Secondary cities and commuter nodes: value, speed, and food frequency win.
The landlord trap is predictable: lease hype instead of resilience.
Modern real estate teams should ask:
- Which dayparts does this concept truly own?
- What is the average ticket with food included?
- Is traffic habit-driven or promotion-driven?
- Can it perform without constant discounting?
- Does it fit the catchment — not just the trend?
Coffee remains culturally relevant. But indulgence across the day is the new anchor.
Entertainment doesn’t pay rent.
Habits do.
Will Odwarka
Will Odwarka is Founder and CEO of Heartatwork Hospitality
Consulting and member of the ACROSS Advisory Board. Now based in Dubai, he has been working Now based in Dubai, across Europe, Asia and the Middle East for more than 30 years.
