Romania enters 2026 with modest economic growth and persistent inflation, yet its retail real estate market continues to demonstrate resilience. In a climate defined by fiscal consolidation and cautious consumption, retail property stands out as one of the country’s most structurally supported sectors.
The country’s GDP is estimated to expand by around 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, underperforming much of Europe as fiscal tightening weighs on public spending and household demand. Inflation remains elevated, averaging 7.3% in 2025, with a gradual easing expected later this year. The National Bank of Romania is maintaining a restrictive monetary stance, keeping financing conditions tight.
At the same time, sovereign financing indicators have improved. Ten-year government bond yields have declined from peak 2025 levels, reflecting renewed international confidence. This stabilisation is gradually supporting real estate pricing and investor sentiment.
Retail: Structural Undersupply Meets Active Demand
Despite slower consumer spending growth, Romania’s modern retail stock approached 4.77 million sq m in 2025 — still below per capita levels seen across much of Europe. This structural underpenetration continues to underpin developer and retailer interest.
New deliveries remained above the pre-pandemic average, driven mainly by extensions and refurbishments of existing shopping centres, alongside retail park expansion in regional cities. Convenience-led and value-oriented operators have been particularly active, aligning with broader European consumption trends.
Retailer appetite is reflected in transaction activity. Carmen Ravon, Head of Retail EEC & Romania at CBRE, noted that 850 lease transactions were completed in 2025, including 320 long-term agreements of at least five years. In a more cautious economic climate, she described retailers’ continued expansion into malls and retail parks as “a clear sign of maturity and confidence in Romania’s long-term potential”.
Prime rents remained broadly stable toward year-end, following moderate increases earlier in 2025, while occupancy in dominant schemes stayed firm. Landlords continue to optimise tenant mix and invest in refurbishments, with greater emphasis on food, leisure and experiential concepts.
Capital and Land: Defensive Strategies Prevail
Investment volumes reached approximately EUR 535 million in 2025, still below the five-year average but showing improved momentum in the final quarter. Domestic investors accounted for 31% of annual volume, mirroring wider CEE trends where local capital anchors liquidity.
Retail parks and convenience-driven formats remain in focus for investors, supported by stable operational performance. Meanwhile, more than 136 hectares of development land were transacted nationwide in 2025, up 41% year-on-year, with retail accounting for one third of intended uses.
In a constrained macroeconomic environment, Romania’s retail real estate market is not driven by cyclical exuberance. Instead, it is supported by structural undersupply, disciplined development and sustained occupier demand — fundamentals that continue to differentiate it within the region.
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