“Retail and convenience centers once again made a significant contribution to the strong result, participating in market activity for the second consecutive year with around €1 billion (a share of just over 33%), including the Three Lions Portfolio, which was advised by BNP Paribas Real Estate. Market dynamics for supermarkets and discounters accelerated markedly, up 32% to €1.1 billion in investment volume. Driven by XXXLutz’s acquisition of Porta, the non-food retail park segment achieved one of the best results ever recorded, contributing €900 million to the total,” explained Christoph Scharf, Managing Director of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH and Head of Retail Services.
While the largest volume drivers — such as the Porta acquisition and Habona Invest’s purchase of 22 convenience properties — occurred at the start of the year, the highest number of deals was recorded in the fourth quarter, underscoring the consistently strong investor interest in this segment.
Core Assets on the Rise, Core+ Holding Steady at a Strong Level
Demand for well-performing food retail parks remains undiminished, as they serve as guarantors of recession-proof revenues in an environment shaped by uncertainty. As a result, investment volume rose 10% in 2025 to €2.1 billion. The core segment in particular posted strong gains, driven primarily by portfolios featuring well-functioning retail parks in established convenience locations. With a volume increase of 49%, core investments reached €970 million — their best result since 2022. Core+ properties also remain firmly in investors’ focus: at over €900 million and a 44% volume share, they form the second key pillar of the market. Value-add products currently play a secondary role due to a lack of larger portfolio supply.
Purchase price factors are stable across all risk categories, both in the retail park center and the supermarket/discounter segments. A continued sideways movement is likely in 2026.
Large Portfolios in Q1, Mid-Sized Packages Throughout the Year
Food-anchored portfolios are and remain the most important investment product within the retail portfolio segment. In total, grocery retail portfolios (LEH portfolios) reached around €1.1 billion in transaction volume for the full year, accounting for approximately 55% of total package sales in the retail segment — a notable figure given the Porta acquisition in the non-food sector.
While the number of grocery portfolio deals rose slightly from 22 to 24, the average deal size remains unchanged at a relatively low €45 million in long-term comparison.
Aside from the occasional large-volume portfolios in the three-digit million range — such as the Penka Portfolio acquired by Habona — the majority of market activity involved smaller and mid-sized portfolio transactions between €20 and €70 million. The fact that a larger number of deals above €100 million were not completed in 2025 is less a question of investor interest than of insufficient supply.
Investment Managers Clearly Dominating the Market
Institutional investors continue to be by far the most active players in the market. In 2025, they contributed well over 50% of investment volume, channeling it primarily into special funds (18% market share) and closed-end funds (11%). The largest transactions in the market were accordingly completed for institutional investment vehicles, including the Penka Portfolio acquired by Habona and the Three Lions Portfolio. Other prominent acquisitions such as the ShoreLine and Four Green portfolios also fall into this category.
With a 9% share, operators remain consistently active on the buyer side. On the seller side, in addition to investment and asset managers (28% market share), project developers are more prominently represented in the seller rankings with just over 15%. Operators are the third-largest seller group with a 12% market share.
Significant Expansion Potential in the Food Segment — the Hidden Reserve in Every Portfolio
The grocery retail sector has developed very dynamically in recent years. Revenues have been growing for years, most recently in 2025 with real growth of +1.1% year-on-year. Not only revenues have increased, but also the product range — for example, expanding to include more fresh and organic goods as well as drugstore items. In addition, greater emphasis is being placed on product presentation and shopping quality, driving a growing need for retail floor space.
BNP Paribas Real Estate conducted an analysis based on nearly 1,200 store locations nationwide to assess potential additional space requirements. The store formats examined were supermarkets, hypermarkets, self-service warehouses, and grocery discounters. For each format, the current average leased area was compared against the space requirements clearly defined in the expansion profiles of leading grocery retailers.
Summary of findings: for hypermarkets and self-service warehouses, current leased space and space requirements largely align, meaning no significant action is needed. For supermarkets and grocery discounters, current leased areas are on average considerably smaller than retailer-defined target sizes. Supermarkets fall short by an average of around 450 m² per asset; grocery discounters by 250 m² per property. In total, this translates into a calculated expansion potential of 4.8 million m² in the supermarket segment and 4.0 million m² for grocery discounters — theoretically equivalent to 2,100 and 2,700 new-build stores respectively.
Regardless of lease term, there is therefore significant “hidden” upside potential in every existing portfolio, further enhanced in most cases by substantial rent increases and long lease terms (typically 15 years) upon expansion.
“With a 48% share of total retail investment volume, the retail park segment once again confirmed its importance and the strong investor interest in 2025. The grocery segment in particular developed dynamically, up 10% to €2.1 billion. However, a supply shortage in the large-volume portfolio segment prevented an even higher overall total in 2025 and kept the average volume of grocery portfolios at a low €45 million. The grocery investment market is heading into a strong 2026, as investor demand is high and continues to grow — particularly from pan-European funds. In an environment marked by uncertainty, they value the recession-proof revenues of the grocery retail segment. The market should also receive additional tailwinds from the supply side. An expansion of supply is emerging, particularly in the highly sought-after core segment, including for larger portfolios. In general, more products should come to market across all risk categories and quality segments, while little change is expected in purchase prices,” summarized Christoph Scharf.
Download and read the full Q4 Report on the German grocery investment market here.
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