Outlet centers: Stable market development in Europe

Whilst brick-and-mortar retailers are generally complaining about consumer reluctance to spend, and shop closures and insolvencies frequently dominate the headlines, the market for outlet centers is showing a remarkably stable, if not positive, trend. As arguably the only form of brick-and-mortar retail – apart from food retail – outlet centers appear to be largely immune to online retail. The majority of outlet centers report rising footfall and turnover, and significant vacancy rates within the centers are generally unheard of.

Signs of Market Saturation in Western and Southern Europe

Nevertheless, the pace of development is a far cry from the boom years of the last decade.

“This may be because the outlet markets in Western and Southern European countries, in particular, are showing increasing signs of market saturation. It may also be because planning and approval procedures in many of these countries are extremely lengthy and costly, which is particularly true of Germany. And the capital and construction costs, which have risen significantly in the meantime, also play a not insignificant role here,” explains Joachim Will, Managing Director of ecostra.

The Wiesbaden-based economic consultancy ecostra has been analyzing the development of European outlet markets for over 20 years, regularly publishing the latest market data and commenting on the relevant trends. The new findings for 2025/2026 are now available.

The Project Pipeline is Gradually Drying Up

According to findings by ecostra researchers, following a long boom phase characterized by a constant stream of new project plans, the European outlet market has now entered calmer, but evidently also very stable, waters. Since the start of 2025, there has been just one new opening in Europe: the Designer Outlet Kraków (Poland), which opened in May 2025 with a lettable area of approximately 12,000 m² and is due to be expanded in a later construction phase to the already approved size of approximately 20,000 m² GLA.

“Various other project plans have since been put on hold or abandoned for a range of reasons. As a result, the project pipeline has gradually emptied in recent years and currently stands at around 20 more or less concrete plans for new outlet centers in Europe. With seven projects, most are located in Germany. Just 10 years ago, in 2016, the number of new projects in Europe stood at 62, with 20 locations in Germany alone. Many projects have fallen by the wayside,” said ecostra Managing Director Will.

Expansions of Existing Outlets Are Dominating Market Activity

According to ecostra’s market analysis, there are currently 195 outlet centers in operation across Europe, with a combined retail sales area of over 3.2 million m². Compared with the previous year, this retail sales area increased marginally by around 0.1 per cent, driven by the new opening in Kraków and two expansions in Switzerland (Landquart) and Italy (Torino). The United Kingdom continues to have the highest number of centers, followed by Italy, France and Spain. Germany ranks fifth, with 19 centers and an outlet sales area of around 275,000 m². Further growth is expected in the near future, particularly in Germany.

Will: “Planning permission has been granted for the expansion projects in Montabaur and Zweibrücken. Although the plans in Zweibrücken are still under threat from legal challenges regarding regulatory compliance, we expect these objections from neighboring municipalities to be unsuccessful in court.”

Strong Investor Interest in a Niche Market

Whilst site development in the European outlet market has thus lost considerable momentum, the transaction market is all the more vibrant.

“Not only family offices, but an increasing number of institutional investors have discovered outlet centers as an attractive investment opportunity and are prepared to dig deep into their pockets for successful and well-positioned sites,” reports the ecostra managing director.

Whilst 2024 was already an all-time record year with a total investment of approximately €1.8 billion, this figure was surpassed once again in 2025. And 2026 is also shaping up to be another record year. In the first six months of 2026, outlet centers worth just under €1 billion have already changed hands.

Outlet Centers as a Source of Stability for Investment Portfolios

On the buyer’s side, the French Frey Group has been particularly active recently, having acquired – together with Cale Street Partners – a portfolio comprising three outlet centers in northern Italy from the investment fund Blackstone. Shortly before that, Frey had already purchased the Designer Outlet Berlin from Nuveen Real Estate. VIA Outlets, a company owned by the Dutch pension fund APG, has acquired a large-scale outlet center in the south of the Italian city of Milan.

American investors are also extremely active on the European market: the Texan fund TPG acquired the Designer Outlet Neumünster, whilst Simon Property Group, the largest US operator of shopping and outlet centers, expanded its portfolio to include two sites in northern Italy. In the Russian Federation, too, there was a significant transaction despite the withdrawal of many brands in the wake of the war in Ukraine, which has caused corresponding problems for the leasing market: the American-Russian joint venture Hines / Belaya Dacha sold a package comprising two outlet centers to a Russian investor; according to available information, this was the largest transaction of any kind in the Russian property market in 2025.

Equally noteworthy are the activities that self-made billionaire Mike Ashley is pursuing in the outlet market with his listed Fraser Group. The owner of retail chains such as Sports Direct, Sport Scheck and House of Fraser has now built up a portfolio of six outlet centers in the United Kingdom and is continuing its acquisition spree.

Will says: “This also applies to other national and international investors. A good outlet center provides a stabilizing anchor for any portfolio. That’s something you can’t say about too many retail properties at the moment.

The Outlet Center Market in the European Countries 2026. Current Status and Development Trends

(1) = Ranking in descending order by number of sites in operation
(2) = Because of the withdrawal of most brand manufacturers from the Russian market due to the sanctions resulting from the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, the current situation of Russian outlet centers cannot be reliably assessed.

© ecostra-research, Status: June 2026

(dp)