The latest Global Retail Attractiveness Index leaves little doubt: Europe continues to lead the global retail market. Although the EU-15 Retail Index eased slightly after the strong momentum of 2025, the region still achieved an impressive 115 points in the first quarter of 2026, maintaining a clear lead over North America and Asia-Pacific. In an increasingly volatile geopolitical and economic environment, this stability has become Europe’s greatest competitive advantage.
The data collected by NIQ-GfK and Union Investment shows that Europe’s retail market is entering a more cautious phase rather than a period of decline. Consumer sentiment and retailer confidence weakened modestly over the past two quarters, reflecting higher energy prices, persistent geopolitical tensions, and ongoing economic uncertainty. Yet despite these pressures, the overall retail environment across Europe remains resilient and fundamentally stable.
Most importantly, actual retail activity continues to hold up. Across the EU-15, retail trade remains positive and continues to support the broader market outlook. This disconnect between softer sentiment and stable retail performance underlines the robustness of Europe’s retail sector.
Q1 2026 Regional Comparison
- Europe (EU-15): 115 points
- North America: 99 points
- Asia-Pacific: 97 points
EU-15 Key Indicators
- Consumer Confidence: +0.9
- Retail Confidence: –0.3
- Retail Trade: +4.7
- Unemployment (inversed): –4.3
- Retail Index: stable year-on-year
Retail Trade Becomes Europe’s Stabilizing Force
One of the most important findings of the latest GRAI update is the continued strength of retail trade across Europe. While consumers and retailers alike have become more cautious in their outlooks, spending activity itself has remained surprisingly resilient.
This development suggests that European households continue to consume despite uncertainty surrounding inflation, labor markets, and geopolitical developments. For retailers, this creates a more balanced environment than sentiment indicators alone might suggest. Even in countries where confidence indicators weakened, retail sales trends remained positive.
“As a result, Europe’s retail market is showing signs of stabilization rather than contraction. The combination of moderate confidence levels and healthy retail trade points toward a market that remains active, adaptive, and capable of absorbing external shocks,” said Roman Mueller, Head of Investment Management Retail at Union Investment.
Retail Trade Growth Highlights
- Czech Republic: +6.5
- Portugal: +6.9
- Spain: +7.1
- Poland: +8.3
- Germany: +5.1
- United Kingdom: +5.3
GRAI for EU 15 remained stable at 115 points
Retailer Optimism Remains Strong in Northern and Central Europe
Despite a more uncertain economic backdrop, several European markets recorded exceptionally strong gains in retail confidence. Particularly in Northern and Central Europe, retailers appear increasingly optimistic about future business performance.
Denmark emerged as one of the standout markets of the quarter. Although broader economic concerns remain visible, Danish retailers reported a substantial increase in confidence, indicating expectations of stronger consumer activity and improving market conditions.
Austria also continued its positive trajectory from previous quarters, supported by stronger consumer confidence and stable retail performance. Finland, meanwhile, posted another sharp increase in retailer optimism, even though labor market conditions weakened significantly.
These diverging developments illustrate the complexity of Europe’s retail landscape in 2026: sentiment and structural indicators are not always moving in the same direction.
Strongest Retail Confidence Gains
- Denmark: +24.3
- Finland: +10.6
- Austria: +10.3
- Poland: +4.4
- Belgium: +3.6
The Czech Republic Highlights Europe’s Diverging Dynamics
One of the most striking developments in the Q1 2026 index comes from the Czech Republic. The country recorded one of the strongest increases in consumer confidence across Europe while simultaneously experiencing a dramatic decline in retail confidence.
This unusual divergence reflects a market where households are becoming increasingly optimistic, while retailers remain cautious about future economic conditions. The discrepancy may be linked to concerns about operational costs, labor availability, or broader economic uncertainty.
Yet despite weaker retailer sentiment, the Czech Republic remains one of Europe’s strongest-performing retail markets overall, with index levels comfortably above the EU average.
France presents another example of the uneven developments currently shaping Europe’s retail landscape. Consumer confidence remains weak, labor market indicators continue to deteriorate, and the country recorded another decline in its overall Retail Index. Nevertheless, retail trade itself remains positive—again reinforcing the broader European pattern of resilient spending activity despite softer sentiment.
Key Country Developments
Czech Republic
- Consumer Confidence: +16.2
- Retail Confidence: –24.5
- Retail Trade: +6.5
France
- Retail Index: –1.5
- Unemployment (inversed): –12.1
Europe Still Outpaces North America and Asia-Pacific
Although Europe’s growth momentum moderated in early 2026, the region continues to outperform the world’s other major retail markets by a substantial margin.
North America remained broadly stable, supported primarily by improving retailer confidence and stronger retail trade. Canada delivered particularly strong gains, while the United States posted more moderate improvements.
Asia-Pacific also showed signs of recovery, driven by rising consumer optimism and improving retail sentiment. South Korea emerged as the strongest-performing market globally, with consumer confidence surging sharply year-on-year. Australia likewise posted robust gains in retail confidence despite weaker consumer sentiment.
However, even with these positive developments, neither region comes close to Europe’s overall level of retail attractiveness.
North America
- Retail Index: 99
- Retail Confidence: +10
- Retail Trade: +5
- Canada Retail Index: +8
- USA Retail Index: +2
Asia-Pacific
- Retail Index: 97
- Consumer Confidence: +18
- Retail Confidence: +8
- South Korea Retail Index: +16
- Australia Retail Confidence: +28
Stability Is Becoming Europe’s Competitive Advantage
Long-term GRAI data continues to confirm Europe’s position as the world’s strongest retail region. At 115 points, the EU-15 remains significantly above the long-term benchmark of 100 and comfortably ahead of both North America and Asia-Pacific.
“What makes Europe stand out is not explosive short-term growth, but balance and resilience. Retail trade remains healthy, consumers continue to spend, and many retailers maintain confidence despite difficult macroeconomic conditions,”, said Laura Roll, Senior Investment Manager Retail at Union Investment.
In an era increasingly defined by uncertainty, stability itself is becoming one of retail’s most valuable assets—and Europe currently offers more of it than any other major region in the world.
Why Europe Continues to Lead
- Strong and stable retail trade
- Broadly resilient consumer spending
- High retailer confidence in key markets
- Balanced long-term market development
- Significant lead over global competitors
